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Ukraine crisis: Joe Biden accuses Russia of running ‘false flag operation’ to justify invasion

Western intelligence believes that Russia is continuing to build up forces near Ukraine, despite Moscow’s claims of a return to barracks for some forces, writes the Guardian’s defence and security editor Dan Sabbagh.

Western officials believe Russia is at the point where nearly half of the combat forces “are now within 50 kilometres of the border of Ukraine”.
Some of the 14 Russian battalion tactical groups that were seen heading towards Ukraine have now arrived in the region, adding to a force of 100 battalions. Officials were reluctant to turn that into troop numbers but other estimates have suggested the massed Russian force is around 150,000.

There is evidence, officials believe, “of Russian forces leaving the deployment sites for staging areas closer to the border” and the “continued movement of Russian ground equipment in Belarus” where Moscow is holding joint military exercises with its neighbour to the north of Ukraine.

Firm evidence of Russian forward deployments is limited however. Western officials pointed to the recent construction of a pontoon bridge across the Pripet river during the Allied Resolve exercises 8km from Ukraine’s border in an area in the exclusion zone around the site of the former Chernobyl nuclear reactor.

But, according to Tom Bullock, a defence intelligence specialist at Jane’s, that as of Wednesday the bridge had been taken down again.

The UN Security Council session on Ukraine is underway, writes the Guardian’s world affairs editor Julian Borger.

The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, made a last minute decision to address the session itself. Ironically, Russian is currently the president of the council and has some say on how the meeting will be held. The UN undersecretary general for political and peacebuilding affairs, Rosemary DiCarlo, has told the meetings about reports of new ceasefire violations at the contact line in Luhansk and Donetsk and said “these violations must not be allowed to escalate further.”